Skymet says the IMD ignored the required criterion of two days of necessary rainfall to declare a proper onset of monsoon, reports Sanjeeb Mukherjee.
Some states are taking a legal view on the state GST rate and the compensation rules ahead of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council meeting, which is likely to be held in mid-June, said people in the know. While the agenda is still being finalised, several states are likely to take up the matter related to GST compensation and may pitch for its continuation beyond the June 30 deadline. States would like to know how they would divide the compensation collected after June 2022 for payment of principal and interest of compensation shortfall borrowing and arrears to states, sources said.
After a ban on wheat exports, India's cereal grain procurement for the central pool was struggling to rise significantly until the middle of last week, informed trade and market sources. Farmers have been holding on to their produce as the price of wheat in the open market recouped some of the losses it suffered in the aftermath of the ban. According to trade estimates, around 18.12 million tonnes (mt) of wheat was procured in the central pool up until May 18. Before the export ban was enforced on May 13, it was 17.96 mt.
Indonesia, the world's biggest supplier of palm oil, said on Thursday it will lift a ban on exports from Monday, likely helping India and other importers. India annually imports around 13-13.5 million tonne of edible oils, of which around 8-8.5 million tonnes (around 63 per cent) is palm oil. Of this, 8-8.5 million tonnes of palm oil, 45-50 per cent comes from Indonesia and the rest from neighboring Malaysia.
'Our competitiveness with China is very important.' 'If the exchange rate depreciates, it is good for us because it helps in our competitiveness.'
India's inflation trajectory in the coming months will be influenced more by the geo-political situation due to the war in Europe and its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. However, the country is better placed than most to "weather the storm" and achieve growth of close to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its latest monthly economic report on Thursday. "Through the channel of imports, elevated global crude and edible oil prices now have a significant impact on India's inflation outlook. "Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check, along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI, are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy," the monthly economic report for April, drafted by the finance ministry's economic division, said.
Santosh Patkar of Devgadh Taluka Sindhudurg district of Maharashtra is a worried man these days. Devgadh, which is known as the home to world famous Alphonso variety of mangoes, has seen an unusual drop in yields which is affecting farmers' income. Being one of the primary agricultural produce from the area, Santosh is not untouched by this somewhat rare phenomenon. He said in his own mango garden, yields have come down by a third from most trees.
'Top lines will grow, volume growth will be there, but margins might also be impacted.'
Earlier this month, the Central government said in a reply in Parliament it had taken measures to double farmers' income by the end of FY23 and the progress made so far indicated it was "on the right track". However, a close look at the data and at the assumptions made shows that as of now, it appears the country is unlikely to achieve the goal in real terms.
The surge in wheat export from India owing to the Ukraine crisis has once again demonstrated how farmers in states that have flexible marketing frameworks and low taxes benefit more from an emerging situation. The bulk of the wheat exported from India, trade and industry sources say, is being sourced at rates significantly higher than the state-mandated price of Rs 2,015 per quintal in Madhya Pradesh (MP), Uttar Pradesh (UP), and Gujarat - states which have low mandi taxes compared to Punjab and Haryana. This is not only benefiting farmers there but could also lead to significant savings for the states in procurement costs in the months to come.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.
The negative balance is largely on account of pending material cost for the work done under the programme during the year and even earlier.
India's potato and tomato production could be marginally less in 2021-22 as compared to the previous year while onion output could be almost 17 per cent more than last year. This was stated in the first advance estimate of horticulture production released on Monday. The government also said total horticulture production is estimated to be at 333.3 million tonnes, a slight decrease of about 1.35 million tonnes (mt)?(or 0.4 per cent) over 2020-21.
A decision to tap the 30 countries for exporting wheat was taken at a meeting of the commerce ministry on Thursday.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis, along with general bullishness in agricultural commodities, has ensured that after a fairly long time, most of the 24 commodities for which the Centre declares the minimum support price (MSP) are trading above it. The exceptions here are chana or gram and a few varieties of pulses. This might gladden the farmers, especially those who are still holding on to their stocks from the previous kharif harvest or are harvesting the latest rabi crop. But this could stoke retail and wholesale inflation.
Taking advantage of a Russian offer to sell its crude oil cheap and bear the cost of insurance and transportation, India may import as much as 2 million tonnes (mt), or roughly 15 million barrels of crude, from the sanctioned nation in 2022, Business Standard has learnt. This comes after reports that Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) bought 3 million barrels of Russian Urals from trader Vitol for May delivery. This will be on cost, insurance and freight (CIF) model, where the seller incurs the costs and pays the freight, including insurance charges.
India's opening stocks of wheat in the central pool are expected to be 19.5-20 million tonnes as on April 1, 2022, the lowest in the last three years, but much higher than the normative level required for maintaining a buffer and strategic reserve, trade and market sources said. In accordance with the buffer and strategic reserve norms, India should have a wheat stock of 7.5 million tonnes in the central pool as on April 1 each year and this year's stocks, though the lowest in the last three years, will still be over 160 per cent more than what is required. On the export front, both government and trade sources are unanimous that this year (FY22) they will be 7-7.25 million tonnes, a record, while in the next financial year, they might touch even 10 million tonnes if the current momentum is maintained.
India's wheat exports could touch a new record of 10 million tonnes in 2022-23, up from a record seven million tonnes in the current financial year, if global market conditions remain choppy and no curbs are imposed on outbound shipments. That is the bullish estimate by officials from global trading firms and market watchers who say the Russia-Ukraine crisis has not only attracted global buyers to India but also pushed the price of Indian wheat from around $320 per tonne (FOB) to over $360 per tonne in less than 10 days. Food secretary Sudhanshu Pandey told reporters that wheat exports till February-end have already reached 6.6 million tonnes and by the end of March, outbound shipments will reach seven million tonnes.
The finance ministry said on Tuesday that high energy and commodity prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may provide an upside risk to inflation and continued vigil is required. "Going forward, elevated energy and commodity prices may act as an upside risk to the inflation outlook in the near-medium term. "Given the inherently unsustainable nature of high prices, international commodity prices are expected to level off early with an increase in supplies outside the crisis zone," the department of economic affairs said in its latest monthly economic report for February.
India is looking to tap its diplomatic missions abroad to enable grain exporters in the country to ship out wheat and corn as supplies from Russia and Ukraine are expected to remain disrupted for some time to come. Between the two items, pushing for wheat is easier because of a huge domestic surplus. "We are hand holding our exporters and support from various Indian missions abroad is also being channelised accordingly," a senior government official said. Global wheat prices have jumped since the Ukraine crisis started, with wheat futures in the US reaching their highest levels since 2008.
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